BUSH'S SECOND TERM AGENDA
By: Mark Poloncarz
Date: December 27, 2004
Feeling energized after the November election President Bush is beginning to lay out the framework for his 2nd term. Focusing his efforts on restructuring Social Security, the president looks to put his stamp on an American institution. But as soon as he takes the oath of office he will be a lame duck president whose term will be held hostage to the events in Iraq. Bush wanted this war in Iraq, he took the nation to war on a pretense that has proven false, he sent the troops to Iraq under a flawed plan, he supports a Secretary of Defense who cannot even take the time to sign condolence letters to families of deceased soldiers, and now he watches as the events spin out of control in Iraq.
For almost a year now the president has pushed the January 2005 date for Iraqi elections. He has argued that the holding of such elections will confirm that democracy has taken hold in Iraq. While undoubtedly a vast majority of Iraqis want to see democratic reforms take hold, it is quite apparent that those elections probably cannot be held in any safe manner. Insurgents continue to attack Iraqi targets, last week they executed 3 election officials in broad daylight on a busy street, today they exploded a car bomb at the residence of a top Shiite cleric. And as we saw last week these insurgents are getting bolder in their efforts. How can we ensure safe elections across a nation the size of Texas when we cannot even guarantee our troops safety from a suicide bomber's attack as they sat down for dinner on our base in Mosul?
To make matters worse Sunni Muslims and northern Kurds are pulling out of the election. Instead of having an open process where Iraqis feel safe to vote, we have an election where the primary minority groups refuse to participate and Iraqis will go to the polls under threat of death. No matter whether the election is held, and a new Iraqi government is put in place, there is no doubt that American troops will be patrolling Iraq for years to come.
Thus what happens in Iraq will overshadow Bush's goals for his 2nd term. It is quite possible that the 2nd Bush term will be similar to the final years of Lyndon Johnson's administration. Johnson accomplished much after assuming the presidency upon Kennedy's assasination. His Great Society reshaped our social landscape. But as the Vietnam War escalated Johnson's domestic agenda waned. The man who could get anything through Congress could no longer move a piece of legislation forward as he found his administration consumed by Vietnam. Johnson went from an extremely popular president to a pariah in his party.
While Bush will always be a darling in conservatives' eyes, his grand plans for a second term will be dictated by his further handling of the War. As long as American troops are serving and dieing in Iraq Bush's term will be haunted by his decision to send our young (and not so young) men and women to Iraq. For now a majority of Americans back the War, though they might not agree that going to war was right. However, as more and more troops come home in body bags, or suffer from horrific wounds, that support will wane. Just like Johnson lost middle-American support for the war in Vietnam, continued casualties in Iraq will turn middle-America against the Iraqi war, and in turn, the man who orchestrated the war.
It could be said that Bush has staked his second term on the outcome of the Iraqi elections. It appears he's made the assumption that if elections are held he can declare victory: that the mission has finally been accomplished. His grand plans all hinge on Iraq. This lame duck president will only have the political capital to institute his agenda if our troops are coming home. It does not matter that Republicans control Congress, in the end his second term will depend on the results of an election half a world away and the security in Iraq it hopefully, though unlikely, will bring. That is one reason why he is vigorously pushing his plan to reform Social Security now. If he cannot pass his plan at the beginning of his 2nd term he might not get another chance. The longer the War continues the more he will find a nation, even a "red" nation, unwilling to focus on anything else.
© Mark C. Poloncarz, 2004.
The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent those of the WNY Coalition for Progress.
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