What Advice Does the President Actually Follow?
By: Mark Poloncarz
Date: October 1, 2006
When rumors started flowing out of Washington on the negative conclusions drawn by our national security agencies in a recent National Intelligence Estimate on the War in Iraq (NIE), the president and his advisors jumped into action denouncing the reports. They had no choice but to respond, for it was reported that the NIE concluded that the War in Iraq had actually made America less safe. If that was the case, then the administration's most recent justification for the War in Iraq - that we were fighting there to make our nation safe from terrorism - was false. This of course follows the other flawed premises used for going to war: that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, or that Iraq was involved in the planning or carrying out of 9/11.
Regardless of what other justifications were used in the past, if it was true that the war had actually made the U.S. less safe and promoted terrorism, then the only position for which the American people give the president high marks, he is strong in fighting the war on terror, would also be wrong. Thus the administration forcefully rebutted claims that the NIE concluded that our presence in Iraq was excerbating the growth of terror cells.
As we know, the president has attempted to highlight many positives from Iraq. It appears he was so confident that the NIE actually emphasized those positives that he authorized the declassification of portions of the report which he believed would prove his case. Also, he noted that he was releasing excerpts from the NIE to show that those who leaked information of the report were doing so for purely political purposes.
Specifically, he said, "You can read it for yourself. We'll stop all the speculation, all the politics about somebody saying something about Iraq, somebody trying to confuse the American people about the nature of this enemy."
In other words, you can make your own judgment on the report and come to your own conclusions.
Well after reading the released portions the only conclusions I can come up with are the war is making the world, and therefore America, less safe, and that the president doesn't seem to follow, or for that matter believe the truth of the advice he is receiving from those who should know - our intelligence agencies.
While the NIE does note that U.S. led counterror operations have seriously disrupted al-Qaeda, especially in regard to the centralization of its activities, it notes three sobering facts:
- The global jihadist movement is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.
- Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.
- If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
You can read the declassified key judgments of the NIE in pdf format HERE.
Other portions of the NIE do note that these decentralized jihadist movements can be seriously threatened not only by the continued use of force but also by succeeding in building democratic states in the Middle East. Yet, these hopeful pronouncements take a back seat to the observations which note that the global terrorism movement is not only growing, but spreading and adapting to our counterrorist methods. Also, the NIE judgments released note that these new terrorists are not only growing, but are becoming emboldened by our difficulties in Iraq.
When the president authorized release of the key portions of the report, he said he hoped by doing so it would inform us about the true nature of the enemy we are facing and end the confusions being spread about the war in Iraq. I could be wrong, but I don't think anybody questioned the true nature of the enemy we are fighting in Iraq, and now once again in Afghanistan. Our servicemen are fighting against a jihadist enemy that is a violent and ruthless counterinsurgency which takes great pleasure in killing our troops. However, unfortunately we are also finding ourselves embroiled in a growing secular battle for the future of Iraq. Either way, the enemy is emboldened, ruthless and a danger to all.
But after reading the NIE and other recent reports on the war, including the excerpts from Bob Woodward's new book "State of Denial," the only confusions being spread about the war in Iraq seem to be coming from the White House. It is there where on a daily basis positive pronouncements on the situation in Iraq are released that do nothing but obfuscate the truth coming from the collective conclusions of our own intelligence agencies - that Iraq and the Middle East is a far more dangerous place than when we began this war, and it has become a breeding ground for terrorist activity that threatens not only America but the world.
Over three years ago, while the debate raged in this country about whether we should go to war, I stated in a column that there are no guarantees when heading off to war. At that time I believed in the administration's claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. While I now know those claims were wrong, and regret having fallen for those claims, I agreed with many others at that time that Saddam Hussein was a dangerous man who might need to be removed.
But I did not believe that war against Iraq would be quick and easy. I noted that by going to war we could make the world a safer place, "or it could destabilize an entire region and create an even greater threat to the U.S." Based on the NIE conclusions it looks like the latter happened, and the president still has not faced up to that truth.
Let's hope when the next NIE is released, which is reported to be sometime in November, the president reads the report and actually believes the judgments rendered therein. Because if the president refuses to admit the truth contained in the conclusions rendered by our collective national intelligence agencies, these last two years of his presidency might just go down as two of the most dangerous years we will face at any time in the near future.
Mark Poloncarz, a founding member of the WNY Coalition for Progress, is comptroller of Erie County, New York.
© Mark C. Poloncarz, 2006.
The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent those of the WNY Coalition for Progress.
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